Early Signs of Divorce: 4 Red Flags and What to Do

The four most common early signs of divorce are a breakdown in communication, growing emotional distance, unresolved or escalating conflict, and one partner no longer investing in the relationship. None of these on its own means a marriage is over. Decades of relationship research show these patterns usually build for years before separation, and they often respond to early attention, particularly with the help of a qualified counsellor.

In 2024, 47,216 divorces were granted in Australia. The median marriage that ended had lasted 13.2 years, and the median age of men at divorce was 47.1 (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2025). This guide covers what each warning sign looks like in practice, what the research says, and why the way a separation unfolds matters for men's health in particular.

What the research says about predicting divorce

Much of what we know about failing marriages comes from psychologist Dr John Gottman, whose team observed 130 newlywed couples in a University of Washington research apartment, recording their conflict discussions and monitoring physical stress responses (The Gottman Institute).

Two findings are worth keeping in mind as you read the signs below. First, how a hard conversation starts matters more than most people expect. Gottman's team could predict the outcome of a discussion 96 per cent of the time from its first three minutes, and a conversation that opens with criticism or sarcasm rarely recovers.

Second, four communication habits, which Gottman called the Four Horsemen, appear repeatedly in couples who later separate: criticism, contempt, defensiveness and stonewalling. They tend to arrive in that order, each one making the next more likely.

Sign 1: Communication has shut down

Every couple has flat patches. The warning sign is when conversation narrows to logistics, such as bills, school pickups and whose turn it is to cook, while anything that matters gets parked indefinitely.

The advanced form is stonewalling: one partner goes silent, gives one-word answers or walks out whenever a difficult topic comes up. Gottman's research links stonewalling to flooding, a physical stress state where heart rate climbs above 100 beats per minute and taking in what your partner is saying becomes genuinely difficult (The Gottman Institute).

Stonewalling usually reads as indifference to the other partner. In reality it is often overwhelm, which is why raising hard topics in calm moments works better than forcing them mid-argument.

Sign 2: Emotional distance is growing

Emotional distance rarely announces itself. It looks like fewer shared meals, separate evenings in different rooms, affection that has quietly stopped, and the feeling of living with a housemate rather than a partner.

The tell is the trend against your own baseline, not any single behaviour. A couple who never held hands is not in trouble because they still don't. A couple who used to talk every night and now barely speak has drifted, and drift compounds.

Watch for the disappearance of small rituals too: the morning coffee together, the check-in text, the shows you watched as a pair. These are usually the first things to go and the easiest to rebuild.

Sign 3: Conflict keeps rising, or has gone quiet

How often you argue matters less than what happens inside the arguments. Gottman's Four Horsemen are the patterns to watch: criticism that attacks character ("you always", "you never"), contempt such as eye-rolling and mockery, defensiveness that deflects every concern, and stonewalling (The Gottman Institute).

Failed repair attempts are just as telling. In Gottman's research, couples heading for separation kept trying to de-escalate with jokes, apologies or a touch, and kept having those attempts rejected.

Resentment over an unfair load feeds the cycle. Research summarised by BBC Science Focus links a persistently unfair division of household labour to a 42 per cent higher risk of divorce within two years (BBC Science Focus). The opposite signal counts as well: a marriage that has gone completely quiet because one partner has stopped caring can be further along than one that still fights.

Sign 4: One of you has stopped investing

Marriages run on ongoing effort. When one partner stops planning holidays, stops asking about the other's day and shrugs at problems that would once have sparked a reaction, the relationship is running on momentum rather than commitment.

Gottman's team found a related pattern in how couples talk about their past. Unhappy couples recalled their early years negatively or vaguely, while couples who stayed together kept warmth in the story even after hard periods (The Gottman Institute).

If your partner has stopped raising complaints altogether, do not assume the problems resolved themselves. Silence about the future, from either of you, is worth taking seriously.

Why separation matters for men's health

Separation often lands harder on men than they expect. A Movember-funded study at the University of British Columbia interviewed 47 men about relationship breakdown. Most reported mental illness symptoms beginning or worsening during the distressed relationship or after it ended, and many described using alcohol to manage anger, shame and grief (University of British Columbia, 2022).

The same research programme notes that marital separation is associated with a roughly fourfold increase in suicide risk among men. Part of the problem is that men often downplay relationship trouble rather than talking it through, which isolates them exactly when support matters most.

Distress shows up in the body as well. Broken sleep, appetite changes and poor concentration are common after a relationship breakdown (Better Health Channel). Ongoing stress and poor sleep also affect testosterone, energy and erections, which is often where men first notice something is wrong. Our guides on stress and men's sexual health and sleep, testosterone and sexual health cover those links in detail.

Sadness after a separation is normal. If low mood lasts more than a couple of weeks, or you find yourself relying on alcohol, see your GP (Better Health Channel). Menova's doctors focus on men's physical health and do not treat mental health conditions, so your GP or a psychologist is the right first step.

What to do if you recognise these signs

1. Raise it early, and gently. Gottman's work on harsh startup shows the first three minutes shape the whole conversation, so open with how you feel and what you would like, rather than what your partner has done wrong.
2. Book counselling before it feels desperate. Relationships Australia offers couples counselling nationally on 1300 364 277, and the Family Relationships Advice Line (1800 050 321) can point you to local services. Counselling gives couples a structured way to work on communication and trust, though outcomes depend on both partners taking part.
3. Keep your own base steady. Regular sleep, exercise and easing off alcohol all protect your mood during a rough patch (Better Health Channel).
4. Build support beyond your partner. Many men lean on their spouse as their only confidant, which leaves them exposed if the relationship is the problem. MensLine Australia (1300 78 99 78) offers free counselling for men, and our guide on why men don't talk about mental health has practical ways to start those conversations.
5. Deal with health issues that are adding strain. Problems such as erectile dysfunction can feed distance and conflict, and talking about them openly usually helps; see our guide on how to talk to your partner about treatment. Where treatment is being considered, a registered Menova doctor assesses suitability through an individual consultation, as treatment is not appropriate for everyone.

Frequently asked questions

Can a marriage recover once these signs appear?

Often, yes. These signs describe patterns, not a verdict, and patterns can change. Gottman's research found the difference between couples who stay together and those who separate lies largely in how they repair after conflict. Counselling gives couples a structured way to rebuild those skills, though results vary and both partners need to take part.

What is stonewalling in a relationship?

Stonewalling is when one partner shuts down during conflict: going silent, giving one-word answers or leaving the room. It usually happens because the person feels flooded, with a racing heart and stress hormones making it hard to think clearly. Gottman identified it as the last of his Four Horsemen and a strong marker of marital distress.

What is the most reliable early warning sign of divorce?

No single behaviour seals a marriage's fate, but Gottman's research points to how couples handle conflict. His team predicted a conversation's outcome 96 per cent of the time from its first three minutes, and repeated criticism, contempt, defensiveness and stonewalling were the strongest patterns among couples who later separated.

How common is divorce in Australia?

The Australian Bureau of Statistics recorded 47,216 divorces in 2024, a rate of 2.1 per 1,000 people and slightly down on the previous year. The median marriage that ended had lasted 13.2 years, and the median age at divorce was 47.1 for men and 44.1 for women.

Why does separation affect men's health so much?

Research suggests many men rely on their partner as their main emotional support, so separation removes the person they would normally lean on. A Movember-funded study found most men interviewed reported mental health symptoms starting or worsening around a relationship breakdown, and some used alcohol to cope. Support from a GP or counsellor can help.

When should I get professional help?

Earlier than feels natural. Couples counselling tends to work best before patterns harden, so book when problems persist rather than waiting for a crisis. For your own health, see your GP if low mood, poor sleep or heavy drinking continues beyond a couple of weeks. In a crisis, call Lifeline on 13 11 14 or 000.

References

• Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2025. Marriages and Divorces, Australia, 2024
• The Gottman Institute. The 6 Things That Predict Divorce
• Better Health Channel, Victorian Government. Managing a Relationship Breakdown
• University of British Columbia, 2022. When relationships break down, men are at risk of mental illness
• BBC Science Focus. 5 early signs your marriage is heading for divorce